Let's talk Anthony Davis
A brief look into Davis' play and what it means for the Lakers
Some of my confidence, and trepidation, when projecting what the Lakers could be in the future stemmed from two places: what are the two best players going to look like, and how will the roster change? Right now we are getting an answer to the first one, and it may be even more than what we expected.
Anthony Davis has been on a tear, and he has folks on the Internet doing my favorite thing of discrediting a player by claiming “it’s only [insert team]!” or “it’s only been [insert #] of games!” It’s always obnoxious to see this type of qualification. These are all NBA teams composed of NBA players, and doing anything at a high-level on this stage is impressive. But it’s delicious to see that happen when it’s about the players you’re rooting for. Next I want to see “yeah, but he’s only been doing this for 20 games.” God willing.
High-Brow Stuff
Anthony Davis is amazing. Whether he is soaring through the air to corral rebounds, taking that rebound all the way up the court to score at the other end, finishing lobs or in-traffic passes, hitting tough turnaround, side-step jumpers, facing up a defender and putting the ball on the floor for a smooth and powerful attack at the rim, or flushing dunk after dunk after dunk, AD has looked confident, healthy, and ready. His composure after each of these plays, which would be at the top of a highlight reel for most players in the league, is practically business-like. There’s no outward trash talking, no silly antics, no “too-small” gestures (which honestly would be hilarious coming from a 6’11” center). This guy knows what he’s capable of and knows that nobody on the court is going to stop him from doing it.
Davis has always been on the verge of being the best player of the LeBron-era Lakers. Personally, I thought that moment was happening after game 1 of the 2020 NBA Finals. But it didn’t really happen, and the next two seasons gave us much more to worry about than the transition of Lakers superstar powers (Hey, Russ).
But that time is now. Anthony Davis has clearly been the best player on the Lakers this year. Part of that is because LeBron has dealt with various nagging injuries and the flu that kept him from developing an early-season rhythm. The other part is, well… Anthony Davis has been the best basketball player in the league. He’s leading all players in rebounds (12.3) and 2nd chance points per game (4.7). He deservedly earned his 7th career Conference Player of the Week award.
He was averaging over 28 points per game before an early-game exit in Cleveland brought that number down. Harrison Faigen broke down all the historical marks Davis contributed to in his games against Milwaukee and Washington this past week. I mean, the guy scored 99 points in two games. And, maybe more importantly, he’s leading the Lakers in key categories like points, rebounds (obviously), steals, and blocks. They’ve won 8 of their last 11, including an early contender for best game of the season against the Bucks. There is a possibility that the same team that had two 5-game losing streaks over the course of 12 games (yes, that mean’s they were 2-10) can have a record of 12-14 at the end of this road trip.
Watching AD play has been a joy. We’ve even seen the team figure out that he is allowed to score in the 4th quarter! And we’ve seen AD take matters into his own hands as well. Perhaps his mentality has shifted; or the coaching staff has connected with him in a unique way; or maybe he’s finally been healthy long enough to get into a rhythm. Either way, for the first time in a while I have felt comfortable watching the Lakers go up against tough opponents because there is one player out there that I know will keep them in the game.
To invoke Kobe’s name is difficult. Comparing him is difficult and is usually unfair to him and the player he’s being compared to. But before the Achilles injury, I never felt the Lakers were out of a game so long as Kobe Bryant was playing. Lately, AD has been giving me an eerily similar feeling.
That’s what superstars do. They give you a chance. And it’s great to see Davis remind everyone that he is that kind of a player and more.
Lineup Stuff
I am going to channel my inner Darius Soriano here and scour the lineup data to see what’s going on. It doesn’t tell us everything, and it can be misleading. But it’s important to try and seek out trends and match what we see on the court with the actual numbers.
The most used lineup for the Lakers, according to Cleaning the Glass, is also the most used lineup that features Davis: Westbrook, Beverley, Reaves, and Walker all help put up a 120.4 and 116.7 offensive and defensive ratings, respectively. This is only 98 possessions, however. To give context, the Hawks so far have the lineup with the most possessions at 664. Damn the Lakers are behind, huh. LeBron finds his way in the next two most-used lineups with mixed results.
(As I’m writing this, the news came out that Davis and LeBron are out, and Beverley is doubtful for the game in Toronto. So we will have to wait until Friday to see if any of those numbers will go up.)
A lineup that I am curious about and would like to see more of is one with Schroder, Reaves, Walker, LeBron, and Davis. They boast a +55.1 differential, and it’s a small sample (just 27 possessions). But we can follow the theory of having a freaky athletic scoring guard in Walker, a bigger guard who can defend and make smart play after smart play in Reaves, and a secondary ball handler who can occasionally hit the pull-up jumper and be a defensive pest for other point guards to go alongside LeBron and Anthony Davis. You are giving up size but can make up for it by getting out on the break and relying on Davis’ defense to swallow up any threats.
What I am concerned about is the latest starting lineup. Schroder, Beverley, Walker, LeBron, and Davis have started the last two games against Washington and Cleveland. Davis left early against the Cavs of course, but they have logged 39 possessions together, with a 92.3 offensive rating and a 102.5 defensive rating, resulting in a -10.2 differential. Defensively this is fine, but it does not seem an ideal start offensively for a team that cannot afford to get stuck in a hole early in the game and rely on a bench of vet minimums to dig themselves out of it. It will be worth keeping an eye on whether Coach Ham will continue with a starting lineup that does not give their best player a good start to the game.
Future Stuff
What comes next? Can Davis keep this up? Realistically, no. He’s not going to average 49 points, like he did last week. But since November 10 (I am excluding the game on Tuesday he left early), Davis has averaged 34.2/15.4/2.9/1.3 and shooting 41.7% from 3 and 63.3% from the field. Is that realistic? Uh, no. Probably not? But I do think he can play better than what his season averages suggest, and if he continues to stay healthy, these numbers won’t look so laughable.
What about the team, then? Are they playing too high above their heads? Well, we can argue that LeBron isn’t. And Russ has had a neutral-to-decent impact on the team. He has been important in carrying the playmaking load when LeBron sits, however. But Lonnie Walker and Austin Reaves are your 3rd and 4th best scorers right now. It’s difficult to say how sustainable that is. We are only in December after all.
But there is a level of confidence with this team that is not reliant on past success, or grand delusions. LeBron sees this team as a veteran team. After the Cavs loss, he shook off the notion that staying competitive after Davis went down was a moral victory. “We’re not a young ball club. We lost, and we move on.”
There’s a great amount of stuff you can pick up on with LeBron and AD’s body language. You might be wrong about it sometimes, but right now they seem to be approaching these games with a level of confidence that they ae not only going to be competitive in them, they are going to come out with a W. And maybe that is unrealistic of a team comprised mostly of vet minimum signings and undersized guards. But that level of actualization is needed if the Lakers want to continue climbing out of a historically awful hole they dug. And this team can continue to play well if their two superstars are bought in and the others fall in line.